Cheshire West and Chester Council leaders are feeling cautiously optimistic following a recent drop in case numbers, although they are still urging all unvaccinated residents to get their first dose as soon as possible.

Falling infection rates

Speaking at a Covid-19 Outbreak Board Meeting last night (Wednesday), Council Chief Executive, Andrew Lewis, said: "We've seen a reduction in rates for the first time for many weeks.

"We reached a peak of about 515 per 100,000 about a week and a half ago, but the latest published rate is 349 per 100,000 and our intelligence suggests that it will fall further over the next few days, which is really encouraging.

"But we're [still] being quite cautious. Anyone who has been walking in the hills will have experienced that feeling when you walk up to a peak and you think you might have reached the top of the mountain, only to discover that actually it was just a false peak and there is another one beyond that.

"We don't yet know whether we have gone over that peak and reached the summit of the mountain or if there is more to come.

"But every day that the rates continue to fall gives us cause for optimism.

"What we don't know is whether there has been some structural change in the way people are testing. There has been some anecdotal evidence that fewer people are going for tests now that there is less regulation.

"[However], the data in Cheshire West suggests that although there has been some small reduction in the number of tests, it's certainly not enough to explain why there has been the reduction [in cases] that we have seen.

"The rate of positivity of tests that do occur has also fallen, so that again gives us some grounds for feeling that this is a genuine reduction in infection rates and not just a quirk of the measurement system."

Hospitalisations

Although local infection rates have been steadily climbing since lockdown began to ease and the Delta variant tightened its grasp in all areas of the country, Council leaders were also pleased to see that Covid-related hospitalisations remain low.

As of 20 July, there were 17 Covid patients in the Countess of Chester Hospital, less than six per cent of the 290 that had been admitted by 21 January.

Donald Read, who forms part of the Council's public health team, then informed listeners that two thirds of the people coming into hospital with Covid-19 are either unvaccinated or have had a single dose, and are usually able to go home again after a day or two.

Of those who are severely unwell, around 20 per cent have had both vaccine doses, but these people often have a number of underlying health conditions as well.

"Some people take that to mean that there is a problem with the vaccine or it is not working well," added Mr Lewis. "But actually it is entirely what you would expect.

"In our borough, 97 per cent of people over 80 have had both vaccines and in the early waves they were exactly the people that were ending up in hospital. The vaccine isn't 100 per cent effective and it is not surprising that [some of the] older people in hospital have had [both doses]."

Getting vaccinated

The drop in infection rates and hospitalisations can in part be put down to the start of the school holidays, as well as last week's hot weather, which saw more people socialising outside.

However, current case data does not reflect the full effect of the 19 July unlocking, a fact which tempers the seeming positivity of our falling infection numbers.

According to Council public health consultant, Helen Bromley, if the relaxation of masking-wearing and social-distancing rules is to have an effect on local coronavirus cases, it will present itself within the next week or so.

Mr Lewis therefore concluded by encouraging residents to "remain vigilant" and to "continue to abide by good practice in public health, including hand-washing, maintaining social distancing and being cautious in indoor environments."

Although 78 per cent of Cheshire West's adult residents have received their first dose – more than England average of 66 per cent – the Council is still urging those who are yet to book an appointment to do so as soon as possible.

Further details about vaccination centres are available on the NHS Cheshire Clinical Commissioning Group website.